A massive expanse of asphalt — presumably punctured by trees and landscaping — may hold the key to what central Manteca will be like when the city surpasses 120,000 residents.

The biggest force of change in more than 120 years ago for what is now downtown Manteca is going to be in place in less than four years with the arrival of weekday ACE passenger service.

The late 19th century decision by Southern Pacific Railroad to establish a stop on the sandy plains across a dusty county road from what is today Library Park planted the seeds for today’s downtown. A trade center started taking hold near a repurposed boxcar that served as a shipping point for milk headed for San Francisco and a boarding spot for passengers.

A lot has changed since then. Retail has evolved from small cash and carry general stores the size of a typical modern living room to 140,000-square-foot membership stores. The “disruptive economy” is now regurgitating the phone and delivery grocery system that prevailed from the 1920s into the early 1950s by using apps and — in some cases — delivery robots and drones.

Lifestyles have shifted significantly. No longer is Manteca a 100 percent farm community. A trip to San Francisco more than 80 miles away isn’t a significant excursion. For many, it is a five-day-a-week trip.

The pandemic is reminding us how we shop and how we live is ever changing as one year turns into another.

It is why smart growth needs to take into account the evolving world that kids today will be running when they are starting to think seriously about retirement.

There has been plenty of talk about the wisdom —and the questionable need — to pack up city hall and move it back to downtown whether it is done so in an inspiring manner or as a functional multi-story structure.

Rolling back the clock and returning city hall to its roots is not going to be a game changer that some like to think it may end up being.

The impact of such a move even if it displaces a beloved public gathering spot such as Library Park is negligible compared to what might aptly be described as the Second Coming of the Iron Horse.

While there have been trains rolling through Manteca for at least 40,000 consecutive days and counting, none of those days have involved a series of trains that initially are projected to board 1,500 people and then disembark 1,500 people daily Monday through Friday. The count by 2040 will be significantly higher.

This can have a positive and/or negative impact on the central district. One certainly would want to be far away from downtown when afternoon commute trains disembark and 500 or so commuters rush for their cars or hop on buses at three different points in time. The odds are the schedule for one train will come maddeningly close to the dismissal bell for Manteca High that will be virtually across the street from the future passenger boarding platform.

Where the city ends up locating parking for the riders that will be coming down the track a lot sooner than any significant movement will take place on the future of a new city hall where ever that happens to be, will have a much greater seismic impact on the central district with the aftershocks dictating development patterns for decades to come.

Yet more time has been devoted to debating where it might make sense to move city hall downtown than where to locate parking for the ACE passengers. In fact, the council — as well as their predecessors — has barely uttered a peep publicly about ACE parking even though it will become a reality much sooner than new city hall.

Obviously one doesn’t want cars parked for 8 to 12 hours on city streets in nearby neighborhoods, down Moffat Boulevard, or in existing city parking lots. Such issues can be handled by issuing permits, imposing time limits, and hiring an enforcement officer.

There are three basic areas where asphalt can be spread to handle the parking needs for ACE service.

Two of those areas are primarily under city control meaning there would be minimal need to purchase additional property.

The most obvious would be buying two non-city parcels — the former recycling center and house immediate south of the transit parking lot — and combining it with city owned property between the Manteca VFW Hall/Moffat Community Center and the city’s arsenic treatment plant for well water. This would be closest to the loading platform and an extension of the transit center complex.

It would also effectively have cleaned up the south side of Moffat from Main Street to southern edge of storm retention basin directly across from Eckert’s Cold Storage. Landscaping along the corresponding segment of the Tidewater Bike Way could also be completed.

A variation of that would be buying the vacant parcel across from the transit center on the north side of Moffat where the former Manteca Bean Company once stood. In doing so the city would be converting the largest developable property downtown into parking.

The third option is to use city-owned land along Wetmore where the streets and solid waste divisions are currently located. Solid waste is destined to relocate to the wastewater treatment plant.

Removing city-owned eyesores — the almost 100-year-old corrugated building that until a few years ago housed the vehicle maintenance division and other unappealing uses flanking it and replacing it with landscaped parking would be a huge improvement. It would require a pedestrian tunnel or bridge to access the passenger platform on the north side of the tracks.

And if additional parking were needed in the future as more trains are added as Manteca grows, the city could create additional parking lots where solid waste is now located.

An approach that utilizes available land on the south side of Moffat as well as city-owned property on south side of the tracks would reduce the need down the road for a costly parking structure.

It also opens the door for higher density, transit village style development north of Moffat and south of Yosemite Avenue.

It is clear that if ACE commuters do what they do now — board and go and then disembark and drive away — there would be little benefit to downtown cash registers.

But smart planning isn’t about the here and now. It’s being able to astutely position a city so growth produces the best possible outcome.

Manteca already has a landmark transit center complete with an iconic four-faced clock tower designed to double as a gathering place.

Manteca will be significantly larger in 20 years with a population likely to exceed 120,000. It will also be a different world in 2040 when it comes to lifestyles, retail, and work.

The odds are there will be a tipping point for higher density redevelopment driven by the private sector by that time. Making the right decisions now will pay dividends years from now.

Downtown’s future vitality depends more on developing a true public transit hub at Manteca’s heart and not the place to go to pay overdue water bills in person to avoid service cutoffs.

Once critical mass is reached around a well-developed transit hub the smart growth village will happen complete with dining, shopping, entertainment as well as apartment and/or condo living above.

Then Manteca will have something that Pleasanton and Livermore could never have — a downtown that not only has the whistle and bells as a trendy gathering place but also is the portal to accessing regional commercial, employment, and entertainment.