Manteca could arguably become the California city most impacted in a negative way by high speed rail.
It has everything to do with the nine at-grade crossings along Union Pacific’s Fresno line and the fact the odds are high that on at least a temporary basis — somewhere in the vicinity of a decade perhaps — Los Angeles Basin to Bay Area passenger trains will be passing through Manteca.
The premise is obvious. But like with everything else connected with the high speed rail project that could be a problem it is downplayed or simply ignored.
It assumes Gov. Newsom can indeed deliver the funding to complete the initial 114-mile infamous segment known as the Train to Nowhere from Madera to a point south of Bakersfield.
This could happen somewhere between 2028 and 2031.
Initial plans are to use this as a section to test trains while the rest of the system is completed.
But if anyone is being honest, the odds of a true high speed rail system connecting the LA Basin and the Bay being in place before 2040, if that early, is simply whistling in the wind.
There needs to be two connections made. They are Bakersfield to Burbank via the Tehachapi Mountains and the problematic Pacheco Pass segment to go from Merced to San Jose and then connect with San Francisco.
There is no existing railroad corridor from Merced through Pacheco Pass. This is a key point for several reasons.
First there will be tremendous pressure to get something up and running that makes sense after somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 billion will have been spent to get the Train to Nowhere segment in place.
Waiting another decade or so to get service in place likely won’t be tolerated politically by even the most adherent high speed rail supporters.
It will also take an extremely high amount of money to tunnel under Pacheco Pass given that structure will have to cross the most notorious California fault line — the San Andreas Fault.
The rail authority pegged the cost of the segment in 2016 at $21 billion. Experts — including those that worked on the Chunnel between England and France — put the cost closer to $40 billion based on seismic challenges and high speed rail authority project estimates that have consistently been, and continue to be, woefully inadequate.
There has been talk about getting a hybrid LA to Bay Area system in place sooner than later to get trains moving.
The only way to do that on the northern end is to use Union Pacific tracks from Merced to San Jose that go right through Manteca. And for the record, there is no other city on the UP Fresno main line that Manteca that has more grade-level crossings.
It would essentially require putting in place the ACE Forward project extending service from Ceres — that will be up and running in 2023 — to Merced.
ACE also has plans to straighten out curves across the Altamont Pass to allow trains now inching over that segment at 20 to 25 mph in spots to approach 100 mph.
It also helps that ACE service starting in 2023 will have trains traveling from Ceres to Sacramento.
Toss in plans to try and get Valley Link from Lathrop at a point connecting with the Fresno line to the BART station in Pleasanton/Dublin to continue into San Francisco it doesn’t take a math genius to see what this is adding up to.
Assuming high speed rail trains will run on the segment that is electrified instead of through trains powered by cleaner burner locomotives that have higher speeds than conventional locomotives or even battery powered or hybrid fuel/battery engines, that means a series of transfer points will be in place.
One would be near Bakersfield and the other in Merced.
The switch to ACE Forward in Merced could theoretically do three things. It can put a rider on a train that will take them to:
*Sacramento passing through Turlock, Ceres, Ripon, Manteca, Lathrop, Stockton, and Elk Grove.
*San Jose passing through Turlock, Ceres, Ripon, and Manteca then take the Lathrop Wye to get on the ACE corridor that crosses the Altamont Pass to reach San Jose.
*or they board a Sacramento or San Jose bound train that allows them to switch to Valley Link in Lathrop to reach the BART system and head into Oakland and San Francisco.
Keep in mind those travelers reaching San Jose or San Francisco can then reach BART and CalTrain stations up and down the San Francisco Peninsula.
There is a real possibility that at some point the need for simply a more effective rail system to travel up, down and across California may outweigh completing a high speed rail system per se.
As it is allegedly being designed, top speed is targeted for 220 mph with segments from Gilroy to San Francisco and Los Angeles to Anaheim moving at 110 mph.
ACE’s newer Siemens locomotives can travel at 125 mph as opposed to its original fleet that tops at 100 mph. Meanwhile the Bombardier train-sets Valley Link is looking at are battery powered and has a top speed of 89 mph.
It is quite possible technology will advance far enough by the time California High Speed Rail is in a position to do the “final” connection in the north it might make more sense to double track the UP corridor from Merced to Sacramento and Lathrop to San Jose with expanded freight sidings.
It would require a switch of trains in Merced but if you look at the effective rail hub afforded by the Lathrop Wye, it not only would be more economical and make more sense.
It is not by chance that what are essentially five of the 10 fastest growing communities in California are in the Northern San Joaquin Valley — Lathrop, Manteca, Tracy, Mountain House, and Ripon.
To also have such a high growth area at a true NorCal passenger rail hub is smart planning.
Such a move would require backing off the Pacheco Pass segment and upgrading tracks — mostly double tracking — between Lathrop and San Jose as well as Modesto and Merced. It may also require more sidings for freight movement given the frequency of passenger trains.
Regardless of whether it gets to that point, whether things continue along the Fresno line as they are now in Manteca or it becomes part of as hybrid high speed rail system for a number of years, the siding in Manteca needs to be moved south toward Ripon.
In doing so it will eliminate sidelined trains from blocking the Industrial Park Drive crossing and the replacement crossing for Woodward Avenue that is part of a Caltrans project to have Austin Road bridge the tracks. Move it far enough south and trains slowing to enter and moving slow as they exit the siding will have a minimum impact on all city at-grade crossings.
There are a lot more trains coming down the tracks and right through Manteca with a few of those being ACE trains stopping near downtown along Moffat Boulevard.
Trenches and elevated tracks are cost prohibited. Overpasses and underpasses are $30 million plus a pop.
The biggest impact for the most money would be relocating the siding between Austin Road and Main Street further south.
This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
