You could see this one coming from space.

A man defined by his altruistic acts.

Land bought in the 1960s.

Construction costs from the 1970s.

Borrowing costs from 2022.

What could possibly go wrong?

We’re talking about the train wreck — at least from the perspective of space renters — that’s coming down the tracks at Manteca’s Mobile Home Park.

El Rancho is Manteca’s only private sector affordable housing option

for those 55 and older that isn’t subsidized by the government.

It has prompted a willingness from a majority, if not all, of the existing Manteca City Council members  to utter two words.

Two words that the man who in the early 1980s could proudly say at the time he built roughly 20 percent of all the city’s housing stock probably thought he’d never hear coming from the mouth of a Manteca elected cleared.

The man, Antoine Raymus.

The two words, “rent control”.

The late Raymus’ life story could have been the subject of a Horatio Alger story.

The 19th century American author wrote novels about impoverished boys and their rise from humble backgrounds to lives of middle-class success on the backs of hard work, perseverance and the belief there was a better future ahead for all.

Raymus, in reality, overshot the middle class. He was in the league of the Mr. Potters of the world that became titans in the realm of the towns they helped shape into small cities.

But Raymus was no Mr. Potter. He had a streak of George Bailey so wide that it makes the Mississippi River seem like a babbling brook.

Do not misunderstand.

The young immigrant who came to Manteca in the back of a horse drawn wagon in 1923, who worked as a child on a farm, who struggled with English until a caring teacher went out of her way to help him after school, and who embraced the American Dream was not a saint.

He was human.

But if there was a title for Saint of Manteca, he’d be a contender along with a number of other people that committed more than their share of unselfish acts in their lifetime.

This community, despite being at the cusp of 90,000 and on the brink of being an honest-to-goodness city, is still full of people — poor, working class, middle class, and well off — that do not hesitate to give of their time and resources to help others.

All of this matters because the push for rent control — apparently embraced by many on the council — puts Manteca at a crossroads.

The first path allows market forces to continue to shape Manteca’s growth.

The second path uses government intervention.

The first path will eventually squeeze out those that can’t compete against Bay Area paychecks in the rental and home buying market.

That doesn’t mean it will be an overnight reshape of the Manteca landscape.

The passage of Proposition 13 in 1978 provided protection for homeowners.

As for those struggling renters, Manteca does have a smattering of well-run subsidized apartment complexes.

The second path would inject the heavy hand of government further into housing.

This might be good in the short-term, but is it in the long-term?

Rent control may make sense to some or even many.

But there are pitfalls.

Sooner or later mobile home parks such as El Rancho sell.

If rent controls put in place don’t cover the cost of borrowing money upgrades needed, ongoing costs, and a rate of return that is worth the risk meaning it is higher than the most conservative financial instrument to park millions of dollars, then no private sector entity is going to buy them.

That sets the stage for deterioration and long-term blight.

Or in the case of El Rancho, a logical move one day down the road to turn it into something else.

El Rancho — when Manteca has 130,000 residents in 20 years or so, traffic volumes double on Highway  99 and East Highway 120, and commercial land becomes scare — would become a golden ticket to snare a developer a payday too big to resist by converting the land to other uses.

It goes without saying, whatever rent control Manteca may devise and implement won’t save current El Rancho residents from seeing their space events eventually brought up to what best can be described as market value.

Not only has much of the damage been done, but the city doesn’t have cat-like reflexes when it comes to problem solving

There is, of course, a little detail that makes rent control for mobile homes a different cat than, let’s say, rent control for apartments and traditional “brick and mortar” houses.

Most mobile home park residents own their  living unit whether it a traditional mobile home or a modular house.

Moving a unit is expensive. Plus there is the small detail about where you are going to move it.

That said, if the council is truly concerned about the long-range sustainability of affordable housing in Manteca and not to simply appease frustrated — and scared — renters put into a squeeze at El Rancho Mobile Home Park, they might want to take a pro-active step.

City officials three years ago, passed on a suggestion by a developer that zoning for future mobile home parks should be included in the general plan update.

The zoning would need to go in aeras that wouldn’t border existing or future tract home development.

That’s because one of the biggest roadblocks the creation of  new mobile home parks have today is opposition from those who live in standard tract homes.

Instead, a city that has been talking up a storm about affordable housing initiatives passed on accommodating one solution that has a proven track record.

Antone Raymus’ handprints are all over Manteca. He founded Give Every Child a Chance. He was instrumental in getting the Boys & Girls Club off the ground. Churches are on land today he either donated or sold at sustainably below market prices.

He built and operated El Rancho as a place where seniors could afford to live out their retirement years.

The list goes on and on.

 The Manteca City Council really has two questions before it.

The first, is how they are going to wade into the quicksand that rent control can become?

It is notorious for creating unintended consequences.

Rent control often chases off investors reducing housing growth, tightening inventory, and making housing even less attainable simply because even less is being built.

At the same time there are easily 500 plus mobile home spaces within Manteca’s city limits  that could be in jeopardy either when parks are sold or an operator gets ahead of the curve on raising rents.

And by the curve, that reflects rates higher than the cost of living incorporated into the biggest retirement income source of them all — Social Security.

The second question, is what can the city do to encourage more mobile home parks?

And they need to do so by channeling the altruistic leanings of George Bailey mixed in with the realistic bedrock principles of Mr. Potter minus — of course — the vile contempt he had for those not of his station in life.

In other words, what would Antone Raymus do?

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com