In the next few days, we will know the outcome of Measure Q.

It’s the measure that authorizes a three-quarter of a cent sales tax for 20 years on taxable sales within the City of Manteca.

It is leading by 131 votes based on the 14,909 votes counted as of Wednesday.

Measure Q requires 50 percent plus one vote to pass.

Clearly, the final results can go either which way.

There seems to be little disagreement that Manteca needs better streets and to make sure the city continues to have effective police and fire protection.

And, likely, a lot of people also would agree it would be nice for the city to have more amenities.

Both, of course, cost money.

And as far as taxes to pay for such services, arguably the most equitable by far is this country’s version of a consumption tax, which is a sales tax.

Everyone pays it to a degree.

If the sales tax is one cent and you can afford a $60,000 car, you pay $600. If you can afford a $6,000 car, you pay $60.

Basic essentials such as unprepared food and prescriptions aren’t taxed.

Unlike a property or parcel tax, it doesn’t factor into the equation of whether one can afford to keep a roof over your head.

There is a school of thought the city can do more with what they have.

That same “school” often believes there is a federal or state grant out there that will cover the entire tab, which is more than pure fantasy when it comes to reoccurring costs such as manpower.

So if the measure fails, would it be safe to say that is the reason it did?

No, and not by a long shot.

The fairytale fed to voters by politician “X” that if you elect them they will not only not raise your taxes, but will lower them while delivering you more services and amenities isn’t something many buy into when they are thinking with a clear head.

It clearly defines logic.

And if you say people live in a fantasy world, the question about how close “Q” is can be answered on the local level by “A”.

It was just four years ago when voters approved Measure A, the $260 million Manteca Unified School District modernization bond.

It passed with a 57.66 percent of the vote with approval requiring 55 percent plus one.

There were 8,100 more yes votes than no votes.

And while the voting pool also included Lathrop as well as the Weston Ranch portion of Stockton, you could argue they had less of a reason to feel giddy about a yes vote  given the vast bulk of money would be going to schools within Manteca.

The same November ballot had Measure Z.

It was a City of Manteca sales increase of one cent. 

And it wasn’t just for a limited time of 20 years.

It would have been in place for perpetuity.

The no vote came in at 52.05 percent.

It went down by a margin in 1,376 votes.

Four years ago, there was a low-key organized opposition.

This time there was an even lower level of semi-organized effort fighting the sales tax increases.

There was no organized effort in 2020 to advocate for passage of the tax.

Not even one of the council members that placed it on the ballot campaigned for it, even on a low key one-on-one basis.

This time around not only did all five council members openly support it, but the city conducted 80or so honest-to-goodness meet and greet educational outreaches complete with robust Q&A feedback.

And there was a $100,000 plus blitz by the Yes on Q Committee.

And while the tax may have actually passed when the final ballot is verified and counted, it begs the question: What does the neck-and-neck outcome mean?

Have roughly 50 percent of the populace reached their fill of taxes?

Does the same percentage have no faith in what they are being told is needed and the insufficient money to deliver those needs?

Is it an anti-tax movement?

Or is it simply a bad time to ask for a tax?

It is never a good time to ask people to pay more taxes.

Back in 2020, when it was the depths of the pandemic and even with the federal government doling out money like Santa Claus after he had chugged a case or two of Red Bull, the economic uncertainty was more profound and the outlook scarier.

Yet, the school bond passed.

And it was a tax that had a hard-fast, and quantifiable impact on a household’s financial status.

As far as an anti-movement gaining momentum, three statewide bond measures secured by the state’s general fund passed on Nov. 5.

If people really don’t trust their local leaders, city or school board, they certainly have a funny way of showing it.

Uncontested races, never an issue before, have now happened in two consecutive municipal election cycles,

First in 2022 with incumbent Dave Breitenbucher going unchallenged in the Area 3 race.

And then this year when no one challenged Charlie Halford for the Area 1 seat.

That shows at a half of the city — based on Manteca being split into four council districts — there is no groundswell feeling they are being led by people being dishonest when they talk about city needs or ineffective in steering the city’s direction.

If there had been, an opposition candidate should have emerged.

It is why the answer for the razor thin margin Measure Q will end up going whether it passes or fails, can be answered by the letter “M”.

That’s “M” as in the 2006 half cent public safety tax for frontline police and firefighters that Manteca passed by almost 68 percent.

There were clearly big problems in Manteca.

That summer the undermanned police department was responding to a gang-related shooting every other day. That was a very high profile situation that one couldn’t ignore.

And that was just for starters.

There were the same deficiencies that exist now spread across the city.

Today, gang-related shootings are a rarity, especially using 2006 as the measuring stick.

Growth in itself has kept money flowing.

And when coupled with $13 million in “Uncle Sam bonus bucks” — the one-time federal COVID funds — the city had been operating better than its financial resources would have allowed.

The COVID fund spigot has been turned off.

And as former Mayor Ben Cantu during his tenure repeatedly and correctly pointed out, if growth drops off, so does the city’s ability to keep what one might describe as a house of cards of financial underpinnings from collapsing.

The bottom line is the case for a tax increase was somewhat underwhelmin for many.

Manteca is OK to good currently when it comes to a lot of things including the condition of its streets.

Without a high profile “failure” such as keeping the lid on gang-related shootings, more people drew the conclusion things were OK and needs were not that pressing.

Based on current trends, that clearly will not be the case in a couple of years.

The only way to verify that assertion as being correct is for things to go south in one way or another regarding essential services.

That would require Measure Q to not have passed.

Keep in mind the earliest Manteca can make another run at a tax measure under state law is in March of 2026.

One thing is for certain, the next two years are going to be really interesting.

If it ends up passing, Manteca will be busy positioning itself to address pressing facility needs, make fire and police services more robust, and move forward with large amenity projects.

If it ends up failing, Manteca will be digging its proverbial hole ever so deeper.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com