To bond or not to bond, that is the question.

It’s a question being raised in the race for the Area 2 council seat in the Nov. 5 municipal election.

It has popped up on social media sites in relation to Measure Q on the same ballot.

Everyone in Manteca who is a registered voter has an opportunity to say “yes” or “no’ to the three-quarter of a cent sales tax hike that, if passed, would stay in place for 20 years.

As far as the next council member to generally represent the southeastern part of the city, only those that live in the area can decide who that will be.

That said, the bonding question is a pertinent one for all Manteca voters.

The 20-year revenue stream that the Measure Q sales tax hike would generate could effectively allow the city to issue 15-year bonds for various capital improvement endeavors.

The revenue stream is estimated in 2024 dollars to be $13 million a year.

As developers repeatedly remind the city, state law restricts growth fees to the impacts that growth creates.

That means the $56 million police facility the city needs to replace an aging, low-security, cluster of buildings the city outgrew in 2002 can’t not be 100 percent paid for by growth fees.

A nexus as required by law indicates the square footage that growth will require to be added onto a police station is only what a growth fee can reflect.

There is currently $29.8 million in the government facilities growth fee account.

One argument goes like this: The City can build the police station by taking the $29.8 million and then using future growth fees to pay off the balance.

There’s a problem with that.

Actually there are 10 problems amounting to $266 million.

The government facilities fee identifies 10 projects with the combined price tag of $266 million.

They include a library, expansion of the animal shelter, city hall facilities, public works yard, police range, public safety training facility, and performing arts center in addition to the police station.

In 20 years, you could use all of the incoming government facilities fees and what is in the account now, and you would have a new police station paid for.

By then, thanks to home builders meeting the market demand, Manteca will have somewhere around 115,000 residents.

And Manteca would still have the same size library and animal shelter and none of the other items.

If you think bonding is risky and make your living in the real estate profession, one must ask if all of your clients that are home buyers pay 100 percent cash.

Few people would ever own a home if they waited until they had enough cash to pay for it upfront.

By the same token, the city could never save up enough money to pay cash upfront for a new police station or any other big ticket item.

It would also be fiscally irresponsible given construction inflation historically outpaces overall inflation.

And given best — and safest — practices dictate putting municipal funds such as growth fees into safe investments until you are ready to spend them, the cash the city would be stockpiling wouldn’t earn enough interest to offset construction inflation.

By wedding growth fees with a 20-year sales tax, the city can secure more needed amenities.

The most responsible way would be to have 15-year bonds that end when the 20-year tax ends.

The city currently has no bonding debt attached to the general fund.

It does with the wastewater treatment plant. Those bonds are retired via sewer fees collected monthly from ratepayers.

There’s not a city around that can upfront the cash to build a wastewater treatment plant from scratch to serve a community the size of Manteca, given the cost would be well north of $80 million.

Do not misunderstand.

The city clearly won’t be able to commit the majority of the $13 million to bonding.

Somewhere between 9 and 20 frontline public workers — firefighters and police — would likely need to be funded to fill in the gap created by growth.

The bottom line is new development should have been paying a community facilities district fee years ago to bridge the shortfall in being able to cover public safety personnel growth generates a need for.

The current council is now doing that, but many other projects now goiug forward had already been approved with not a peep from developers that the city wasn’t requiring enough except for the lone voice in the wilderness occasionally from Mike Atherton.

Based on what funds the city is able to put toward major road work and what identified street maintenance needs are, Manteca could spend $3 million to $4 million annually easily over a 20-year period to effectively play catch up .

There are also capital equipment needs such as replacing fire engines, street repair equipment, mechanical systems and the like that need replacement.

Between those items, the city will likely need to use more than half of what is generated annually with a three quarter of a sales tax over 20 years.

The city, with $5 million or so annually to pay off bonds over 15 years can get a lot of basic facility needs in place that won’t only replace structures that are aging and inefficient for a city of 91,000 but also accommodate the demand of a community of 120,000 or so 20 years down the road.

A bond is like a long-term mortgage.

It has lower rates. And that would be especially true with the city’s credit rating.

A 15-year bond issue, just like a 15-year mortgage, eliminates paying a lot of interest.

Yes, the general fund will secure the bonds.

But the risk can be successfully addressed by conservatively projecting growth.

Borrowing done right is fiscally responsible as well being the most cost effective way to acquire facilities.

You are avoiding paying more down the road due to inflation while at the same time locking in your cost in constant dollars in term of currency value when you sign bond documents.

In that sense, it’s is no different than a mortgage.

Responsible long-term borrowing is not risky business.

It’s how most households, as any real estate agent worthy of their profession can tell you, build a solid life, stabilize finances, and build wealth.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com