The year 2024 is shaping up as a watershed year for Manteca.

There could be four elections that could set the tone for decades to come.

Two will likely be on the March 5 ballot.

*The general plan referendum vote effort bankrolled by Delicato Vineyards.

*The San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors race for the District 3 seat.

Two will likely be on the Nov. 5 ballot.

*The District 2 Manteca City Council election.

*A sales tax measure for Manteca.

The referendum and tax measure aren’t forgone conclusions.

It would be stunning, though. if petitions with 7,249 signatures fail to meet the 4,733 signatures threshold of verified City of Manteca registered voters needed to place the referendum on the ballot..

As for the tax election, if the current council opts not to ask the voters to consider a sales tax this year and make a strong case for it, they are going to be in the awkward position of explain why they are kicking the can down the road

All five members have repeatedly made the point Manteca’s foundational funding problems need to be addressed before things deteriorate. And they have made it clear the failure of past councils to  do so is why the city is struggling to provide needed services.

Both measures are fraught with potential collateral damage.

The push to gather signatures to qualify the measure for the ballot to overturn the general plan was based on misconceptions that it would stop or slow down growth.

Rejecting the general plan update does neither.

It likely won’t accomplish Delicato Vineyards apparent goal of not having residential development within a half a mile to a mile of their winery wastewater disposal areas that also doubles as almond orchards and vineyards in addition to open fields.

All of the current and future projects they apparently want to stop can still go forward with general plan amendments to the plan that is still in place while the updated general plan is held in abeyance waiting the outcome of the referendum.

As for the sales tax, not asking the voters in 2024 to consider it means the next available election cycle is 2026.

If it is passed then, a sales tax wouldn’t start generating revenue to start making an impact until 2028.

The political risk is that the council will be blamed for a sales tax increase or — conversely — for not doing anything but give public safety needs lip service.

The reality is they can’t unilaterally impose a sales tax. That’s entirely in the hands of the voters.

But by not giving voters an option to decide, calls into question whether the council members are good stewards.

To a person, the council has said there is a pressing need for more public safety personnel and funding item pressing needs such as street maintenance.

By not advancing a solution for voters to embrace or reject they become the road block to addressing what they have spent the past two plus years saying must be addressed.

The March 5 ballot is the first time in 40 plus years Manteca voters can elect someone to the Board of Supervisors who has to concentrate a good share of the effort to looking out for the city’s when it comes to the overall perspective of the county.

That’s because Manteca won’t be divided between two supervisorial districts any more.

And as irony would have it — considering it would be on the same ballot of the referendum being advanced as a stop growth measure by backers — the two candidates are men who played a big role in helping make Lathrop and Manteca perennially among the Top 10  fastest growing cities in California.

The two are current Lathrop Mayor Sonny Dhaliwal and former Manteca Mayor Steve DeBrum.

Both Lathrop and Manteca each have in excess of 10,000 dwelling units either approved or in various stages of being approved.

For Lathrop, that includes almost two thirds of River Islands – the 15,001 home project that is the largest planned development ever in the Northern San Joaquin Valley.

For DeBrum, it includes pursing infrastructure and development policies that have fostered the very  residential developments Delicato seeks to stop.

It may be a bit difficult for DeBrum and Dhaliwal to sidestep the referendum.

And it’s not just because it is an agricultural versus urbanization argument that is clearly a central question to how the county shepherds growth.

All of the players — the City of Manteca, Delicato Vineyards, and the farmers who own the land between the two — are all part of the supervisorial district both DeBrum and Dhaliwal want to represent.

That brings up the “sleeper” election.

It is a sleeper because it isn’t high stakes like the referendum, high profile like the supervisorial race of high interested as a sales tax proposal.

It is to simply represent District 2 on the Manteca City Council.

It will be the first time the council district voters will have to determine who their own representative on the council is without the other four-fifths of Manteca weighing in

And there is no incumbent.

That means the seat is wide open.

Equally important is the dynamics of the district.

Located east of Union Road and south of the 120 Bypass — as well as east of Highway 99 — it is the fastest growing council district in terms of new housing units.

That includes not just the 1,301-home Griffin Park it’s in its earliest stages but also the controversial 738-home Hat Ranch project, and the first east Manteca development in years — the 797-home Yosemite Square.

Although no one is yet making noises loud enough to let anyone know they are thinking about running, there are four — maybe five — potential candidates.

The most obvious are planning commission members

That’s because three of the current five council members — Jose Nuno, Mike Morowit and Mayor Gary Singh  — are all former planning commission members.

As such, it underscores what is a clear and logical step to get elected to the council.

The district happens to have three current planning commission members residing with its boundaries — Eric Hayes, Celeste Fiore, and Judith Blumhorst.

Hayes, it should be noted, has a somewhat unique view on Manteca growth given he was displaced from his longtime home on Bronzan Road to make room for the city’s McKinley Avenue/120 Bypass interchange now being built to accommodate development.

Debby Moorhead — who lost her 2020 re-election bid to the City Council — also lives in the area.

A district election as opposed to citywide elections was kind to another former council member — Mike Morowit — who gained election in 2022 after being off the council for four years.

The district is also home to Vince Hernandezs, another former council member who left office in 2014.

 Its just over 14 months to the District 2 election.

It’s plenty of time for someone to get an organization  in place needed to run for office.

And depending upon how the campaign for the referendum goes, it could create a fertile situation for what could be Manteca’s first honest-to-goodness  anti-growth candidates.

This column is the opinion of editor, Dennis Wyatt, and does not necessarily represent the opinions of The Bulletin or 209 Multimedia. He can be reached at dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com

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