Twenty developments in various stages include enough approved housing units to increase Manteca’s population by upwards of 31,400 people.

Some 38.7 percent of the 10,828 housing projects are tied up in the 1,049-acre Austin Road Business Park that saddles Austin Road in southeast Manteca. The housing portion of that project - some 456 acres - won’t be built until after the business park portion is well underway. In any case it is 2.5 times larger than any other housing project approved for Manteca.

The housing slowdown triggered by the foreclosure mess spurred by creative loans didn’t slow new home building in Manteca down to a trickle as it did in many other Northern San Joaquin Valley locations. Since 2006, Manteca has averaged almost 300 new housing units - including apartments - being built annually.

That helped reduce the backlog of developed lots with infrastructure in place down to less than 300 from a peak of 964 just over three years ago. Several developers – including Pulte Homes at Del Webb at Woodbridge – have already started developing more lots.

Pulte Homes, Atherton Homes, Raymus Homes, Bright Homes, Woodside Homes, and Florsheim Homes all have active construction going on in new neighborhoods. Those projects account for less than 1,100 of the 10,828 housing lots either on the books or a step away from being approved.

The 3.9 percent growth cap that regulates the number of sewer allocations that can be issued for any given year isn’t expected to be a factor in limiting housing growth for a number of years after the housing market picks up.

The reason is the 3.9 percent annual allotment as it has been employed allowed unused sewer allocation to roll over into subsequent years. With almost 24,000 housing units in place, that would mean Manteca could allow 936 residential sewer connections wither they are apartments are single family homes in 2012. If only 300 are used, then the excess amount would roll over into future years. That is what happened in 2000 when 1,074 new homes were started. Based on the allocation formal, less than 700 new sewer allocations could be awarded in 2000. However, builders did not reach the cap in prior years

The biggest of the projects ready to move forward is the Trails of Manteca with 1,673 living units at the western end of Woodward Avenue

Next Bay – the developers of the Trails of Manteca – plan to utilize the “EB-5 Visa Program”. That’s shorthand for the United States Citizenship and Immigrant Service Employment-Based Immigration Fifth Preference Investor and Visa Program.

In a nutshell, it will allow individual foreign investors worth at least $1 million to essentially buy their way to the front of the line for a green card and ultimately automatic citizenship within five years for themsleves, their spouse, and any children less than 21 years of age. All they will have to do is invest at least $500,000 that will help create at least 10 jobs into the first phase of the Trails of Manteca. The $23.5 million first phase for the Trails of Manteca will create 529 full-time jobs.



The largest projects yet to break ground

Among the larger projects yet to break ground that will help generate 10,828 housing units and add up to 31,400 residents based on a yield of 2.9 people per dwelling are:

• 1) Crivello Estates: The 62-lot subdivision on 18.7 acres is immediately north of where Vasconcellos Avenue now ends in East Manteca and would extend all the way to Louise Avenue.

• 2) Machado Estates: The 160-acre site on the southwest corner of Airport Way and Woodward Avenue could add 560.

• 3) Silva Estates: It is proposed on 59.9 acres on the southeast corner of Woodward Avenue and Union Road with 93 homes.

• 4) Evans Estates: Located immediately south of Woodward West on the east side of South Main Street, the project could generate 586 homes.

• 5)Yosemite Square: The project is on the northeast corner of the Highway 120 Bypass and Highway 99 interchange. It includes five office buildings with 475,676 square feet plus 761 housing units.

• 6) Sundance: The Florsheim Homes project at Union Road and Woodward Avenue involves 451 homes on 110 acres.

• 7) Terra Ranch: The 85-acre project being advanced by Atherton Boyce development north of McKinley and Woodward avenues includes 212 single family homes and 200 apartment units.

• 8) Oleander Estates: A Raymus Homes project on 112 acres west of Union Road and Woodward Avenue that includes 544 homes.

• 9) Shadowbroook with 497 homes on 122 acres on the northwest corner of Louise Avenue and Cottage Avenue.



Manteca growth cap dates back to 1988

The 3.9 percent growth cap on residential housing permits that was tied to the number of sewer allocations that could be issued in any given year was codified in Municipal Ordinance No. 800 in 1988. It was years before any other jurisdiction in the region even started seriously toying with the idea of growth caps.

The 1970s had ended with four strong growth years capped with a 12 percent gain in residents in 1980 that took the city’s population from 20,187 to 25,641 or an increase of roughly 25 percent in 48 months.

The growth rate slowed a bit but then it hit a record 12.1 percent in 1985 followed by a 9.2 percent jump in 1986 that took Manteca’s population up from 29,027 to 35,437 in two years. Manteca today – some 26 years later – has almost 70,000 residents.

The proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back was the city’s inability to keep up with growth. Fees on growth were inadequate or non-existent for a wide variety of amenities such as parks and fire services.

The city was still recovering from a near-bankruptcy episode in 1980 when the budget reserve was a razor-thin $1,800. Manteca’s financial trials were heavy on civic leaders’ minds during the building boom of 1984 to 1987. They didn’t want a repeat of the 1980s experience which forced the city to leave the just completed Louise Avenue fire station unopened because they couldn’t afford to staff it while city police were using old CHP cars with excess of 70,000 miles on them when the city took delivery of them as primary patrol units.

Many residents shared the concern that Manteca was growing faster than basic services could keep up with. The sentiment was Manteca was growing too fast as neighborhoods such as Mayors Park in the triangle formed by the railroad tracks, Louise Avenue and Union Road seemed to develop overnight.

The ordinance – the first growth restriction of its kind in the Northern San Joaquin Valley – went into effect just as the economy started receding. It would take 12 years before the cap would be reached in a particular year to effectively stop issuing sewer connection allocations.

Tying into sewer allocations was viewed by legal experts and civic leaders at the time as the easiest way to implement a growth management plan.

Ordinance No. 800 was put into effect on Aug. 16, 1988 as the guideline for how the first phase of the municipal wastewater treatment plant expansion would be utilized to divide sewer capacity. It was subsequently extended in future years to govern how the second phase of the treatment plant would have its capacity parceled out.

A percentage was set aside for every category in terms of how much capacity of the plant would be allocated to a particular use. Those percentages set aside 60 percent of the overall capacity to housing with no distinction being between apartments, single family homes, duplexes or mobile homes. The other categories – schools, industrial, retail and office divided the rest of the capacity.

Based on the intent and the actual wording of Ordinance No. 800, city leaders view the growth management plan as a success.

That, however, isn’t a universal view. There are those who believe the city has been growing too fast.

Legal counsel steered the city toward using sewer allocations and not actual building permits when the ordinance was implemented due to ease of tracking as well as the economic realities of moving any development project forward.

To determine how many sewer allocations can be issued during a calendar year, city staff inventories all housing units existing in the city and multiplies it by the 3.9 percent factor to come up with how many sewer allocations – not connections – can be issued in a given year.