It has been a general assumption for the past 30 years that  each family that packed up and headed east over the Altamont Pass in search of affordable housing was turning San Joaquin County bluer with each passing election.

That may no longer be the case.

Donald Trump, as of Wednesday, was leading Kamala Harris 49.94 percent to 47.46 percent among votes cast in San Joaquin County.

If that holds when a large number of remaining ballots are verified and tabulated by 7 p.m. on Friday when the Registrar of Voters releases an updated vote count, it will mark the first time since 2004 when a Republican presidential candidate has carried San Joaquin County.

That’s when George W. Bush  was at the top of the Republican ticket.

For the last three presidential elections, San Joaquin County has gone Democratic by roughly a 14 percent margin.

*In 2020, Joe Biden 55.61 percent, Trump 41.78 percent.

*In 2016, Hillary Clinton 53.36 percent, Trump 39.18 percent.

*In 2012, Barrack Obama 55.57 percent, Mitt Romney 41.91 percent.

The flip in the numbers — and apparent down ticket positive impact they are having on local races including Republicans in non-partisan contests such as Regina Lackey who is leading Judy Blumhorst for the Area 2 Manteca City Council race — isn’t lost on David Cushman.

The 32 year-old Manteca High graduate isn’t simply an observer of San Joaquin County politics.

Cushman was John Cox’s statewide volunteer coordinator in the Republican’s unsuccessful 2018 race against Gavin Newsom for governor.

He was a campaign staffer for former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer in the 2021 Newsom recall election.

Cushman was the hired campaign consultant who engineered what some consider the biggest upset in Manteca politics in three decades when Ben Cantu defeated Steve DeBrum for mayor in 2018.

Cushman, himself ran a strong but unsuccessful campaign as a 24-year-old in 2016 for a seat on the Manteca City Council.

And while he is no longer working as a paid political consultant, he is heavily involved as a volunteer with  the Central Valley Impact Republicans dedicated to getting Republican candidates elected in local, state, and congressional offices representing San Joaquin and Stanislaus countries.

“It’s a mostly anecdotal, but millennials in at least the southern part of San Joaquin County (aren’t primarily concerned) about abortion and LGBT issues,” Cushman said. “They’re worried about the price of fuel, crime, and affordable housing.”

The Manteca-Lathop-Ripon-Tracy-Mountain House area provides the bulk of the population that has made the Northern San Joaquin Valley the fastest growing supercommuter region in the country.

Given that means spending at least 90 minutes one way going to and from work, the cost of fuel is a huge issue.

So is housing given what attracts people to the five communities that rank among the fastest growing in California is the ability to buy or rent a house and not jobs.

As far as Republicans per se as opposed to those that vote Republican, Cushman said the hot button issues swirling around abortion and transgender related matters is not a concern as it is in many other states.

“(People understand) the policies are ingrained at the state level and aren’t going to change,” Cushman said.

Evidence that San Joaquin County has been more purple and slowly adding more of a red hue is hiding in plain sight.

Cushman noted that Supervisor Robert Rickman of Tracy has enjoyed success at the ballot box even though he is not liberal but more of a moderate.

And while the shift toward red hasn’t yet manifested in a significant surge in Republican registration at the county level, Cushman believes the trend has been slowly occurring in recent years.

Cushman said the absorption of “valley values” is a long-haul process.

The fact that more recent residents are moving toward issues of crime, housing costs, gas prices, and such reflects the reality that millennials are challenged to be able to afford housing and cover costs associated with the need to commute to obtain livable salaries to support families.

Cushman believes that Newsom’s policies haven’t played well for a large swath of Northern San Joaquin Valley residents.

The trend in San Joaquin County in more voters casting ballots for Republicans is also reflected in election trends in Stanislaus and Merced counties.

And while Cushman isn’t saying outright that he expects San Joaquin County to go red in the near future, he pointed to Orange County — once the California stronghold for the Republican Party but more than a decade ago went solid blue — showed signs this election of reversing course.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com