Rural residents south of Manteca along Peach and Fig avenues were repeatedly told in 2008 by city officials that the alignment of the proposed Raymus Expressway wasn’t something they likely would have to worry about until 2035.

The assurances were given by Public Works engineer Fredric Clark in a community workshop 17 years ago in the McFall Room of the Manteca Library. Two years later, Clark was appointed the city’s planning director.

Fast forward to today.

Raymus Parkway, since renamed to battle the perception it is planned as a high speed road that could eventually carry four lanes of traffic, is now in place between South Main Street just north of Sedan Avenue to Tinnin Road on the southern edge of a 60-acre site 

The site is where the Manteca Unified School District plans to eventually build several school campuses including an elementary school in the next two years.

The fact Raymus Parkway Is a partial reality 10 years ahead of when city officials predicted the first ground for it would break is an example of how Manteca’s crystal ball for growth often under estimates how quickly development will occur.

Since Clark made his estimation when the first segment of the roadway that will provide a southern arterial connection between the McKinley Avenue interchange in the west and Atherton Drive in the southwest would actually break ground, the city has steadily grown.

It has been between 2.5 and 3.4 percent in most years.

Even in the Great Recession when home building came to a virtual standstill throughout most of the Northern San Joaquin Valley, Manteca averaged right around 300 home starts annually from. 2008 to 2010.

That annual amount exceeded the combined total each of those three years in all of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties.

The city’s growth crystal ball has traditionally assumed housing starts would tank for three to four year stretches as they did from 1986 to 1998.

That didn’t happen.

The appeal of Manteca’s location and the fact it has basic water and sewer infrastructure to support growth now has a horde of national builders that are churning out new homes in addition to local builders that combined to see Manteca build a record 1,306 homes last year.

There are more than 9,000 housing units in various stage of the development approval pipeline.

At the same time, based on a general plan that assumes 211,000 residents can be generated from just part of the area now within the city limits, Manteca has set the stage for continued growth.

Manteca’s current population is at 94,000.

The next big Raymus

Parkway question?

It is against that backdrop that another Raymus Parkway question looms.

The question is whether the city should pursue an interchange for Raymus Parkway on Highway 99 roughly midway from the Austin Road over crossing replacement and the Jack Tone Road interchange or whether it should for all practical purposes end as a major arterial when it intersects with Austin Road.

The replacement Austin Road bridge will be four lanes.

The third phase of the 99-120 connector upgrade project that it is part of includes long braided off ramps for southbound traffic existing at Austin and northbound traffic heading north from Austin on Highway 99 and the Bypass.

They are designed to carry large volumes of traffic including big rigs without creating major impacts on vehicle movements between the 120 Bypass and Highway 99.

Manteca has to find a way to pay for those ramps.

And while a Raymus interchange would further improve traffic flow it still comes with four big problems that were explored back at the 2008 community meeting long before a new Austin Road interchange was even proposed.

The interchange would:

*Encourage increased traffic through what is and will be basically a large residential area in South Manteca.

*The interchange would create a shortcut in heavy commute times between the 120 Bypass and McKinley and the Raymus and 99 interchange.

*Manteca cannot grow further to the south or east of Highway 99 where the interchange is proposed due to the 200 year flood plain and Ripon’s sphere of influence.

*As such the interchange based on its cost may have minimal advantages for Manteca based on what it would accomplish.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com