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OVEREALL CRIME IS STILL INCHING UP IN MANTECA
Residential burglaries, vehicle thefts are still much lower than in previous years
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Overall crime — after numerically dropping for two straight years — continues  upward in Manteca.

Mid-year crime statistics compiled by the Manteca Police Department shows as of June 30 show that compared to the same first six months in 2021:

*Felonies are up 26.80 percent going from 709 to 899.

*Burglaries are up 20,22 percent going from 178 to 214.

*Misdemeanors are up 10.55 percent going from 1,517 to 1,677.

Meanwhile, calls for service during the same time period has dropped 3.02 percent going from 22,705 down to 22,020.

Part One Crimes, or the 12 more serious crimes classified as felonies that the FBI uses to determine the relative safety of communities, increased in all but two of the dozen categories with grand theft leading the way. Grand theft rose 60 percent for the first six months of 2022 during the same time period in 2021 increasing from 145 to 232.

That follows grand theft cases jumping 79.9 percent going from 199 cases in 2020 to 358 last year.

Residential burglaries were up 30.77 percent going from 26 to 34 in the six-month comparison.

But over the course of a 40-year period, residential burglaries dropped below 60 on an annual basis last year in Manteca  for the first time since at least the 1980s.

There were 57 residential burglary cases in 2021 came after 2020 numbers dropped to 77. That marked the first time since 1998 the number of residential burglaries dipped below 100.

The peak year for residential burglaries was 2008 with 323.

Commercial burglary was up 8.16 percent in the first six months of the year going from 49 cases to 53. Other six-month comparison jumps saw rape/unlawful intercourse going from 14 to 19, auto burglary going from 87 to 119, vehicle theft going from 97 to 119, and arson going from 8 to 21.

  The numbers are based on Manteca Police crime statistics released last week. The numbers reflect crimes police handled and those crimes reported to the department.

It reflects the first numerical upward trend in vehicle thefts in years.

Vehicle thefts dropped 10.89 percent going from 248 in 2020 to 221 in 2020. It is a far cry from 2005 when thieves were stealing a vehicle in Manteca every 10.9 hours for a record 798 vehicles in one year. That nose bleed number of vehicle thefts included one big rig left idling in front of a Manteca home and a Manteca Police patrol unit.

There has been one homicide so far this year. There was one homicide in Manteca during 2021. That came after two consecutive years of three homicides on an annual basis.

 You are most likely to be the victim of an auto burglary in Manteca than any other burglary. Even so auto burglaries were down 10.19 percent going from 220 in 2020 to 196 last year before creeping back up in the first six  months of this year

 The crime rate per 1,000 tells a different story with crime spikes not as severe for the last six months.

 The reason why the crime rate per 1,000 is used by agencies ranging from the FBI to local police departments is simple — raw numbers for crime don’t provide the perspective of an increase in the number of potential victims.

The crime per 1,000 takes into account population growth to put numeric increases or decreases into perspective for an apple to apple comparison in terms of overall burglaries and felonies. It is why it is the matrix the FBI uses to determine crime rates and the relative safety of communities.

Manteca in 2020 had a crime rate of 18.3 crimes per 1,000 based on 1,598 felonies and a population of 87,000.

That compares to 23.2 crimes per 1,000 in 2019 based on 1,998 felonies and 84,800 residents.

Once you factor in population, crime had been on a steady downward trend since 2015 when it was 32.1 crimes per 1,000. The increase last year stopped that trend although the crime rate per 1,000 is roughly 40 percent lower than it was six years ago.

 

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com