Manteca Mayor Ben Cantu in the past 26 months has repeatedly pointed out Manteca is on its way to being a “city” as opposed to a large town when he pushes for amenities and infrastructure as well as the need to find ways to finance them.
It isn’t hyperbole.
Manteca is on pace to break the 100,000 population mark in six to seven years.
That projection was made in 2009 by the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific when the city had 65,000 residents. The regional analysis done for the San Joaquin Council of Government in mid-2009 projected Manteca’s population in 2020 would be 85,900. The city’s actual population at the start of 2020 was 84,800 according to the California Department of Finance.
The forecasting center was 1,100 short.
The state’s 2021 figures for Jan. 1 of this year will be released in May.
The SJCOG forecast projected 95,700 Manteca residents by 2025, 105,800 by 2030, and 114,900 by 2035.
The projection is based on Manteca adding housing by roughly 400 units a year between single family homes and apartments to increase the city’s population by almost 1,800 a year. In the last three years, however, there have been 2,029 new homes built and sold in Manteca or 643 a year. That includes 772 in 2018, 513 in 2019, and 644 in 2020.
A housing correction could reduce that amount. Keep in mind, though, that during the last recession Manteca was still building close to 300 new homes a year including a three-year period where the city had more new homes built on an annual basis than in all other jurisdiction in San Joaquin County combined.
That was attributed to the fact builders had infrastructure in place for almost 960 lots. With a growing number of subdivisions breaking ground. Manteca could be in a similar situation if another slowdown occurs.
Based on new neighborhoods moving to groundbreaking this year and the amount of approved lots and apartment units, Manteca isn’t likely to slow down its growth pace,
As of Nov. 10, 2020 the City Of Manteca’s housing inventory based on finished entitled and pending lots and units sat at 9,160. Since then almost 200 of those lots have been built on.
That number also doesn’t reflect yet another project moving forward through the planning process. The biggest is the proposed 827 home Lumina project now in the environmental review stage for land on the southwest corner of Airport Way and Woodward Avenue.
Twenty years ago Manteca was the 146th largest out of 482 cities in California with a population of 62,698.
Today Manteca is California’s 100th largest city based on the Jan. 1, 2020 population of 84,800. It was the 103rd largest city in 2018 and 116th largest in 2017.
Manteca added 1,405 residents last year after growing by 2,759 in 2018.
Manteca at its current growth rate will top 100,000 residents in 2028. If that happens, Manteca will have quadrupled in size in 49 years. The city’s population in 1980 was 23,150 residents or 3,587 less residents than Lathrop was at the start of 2020 with a population of 26,837.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
