It took Escalon — the next city as you head east out of Manteca on Highway 120 — over 160 years to reach its population today of 7,472.

Manteca, Lathrop, and Tracy are poised to possibly add housing to generate that many new residents in 2025.

No less than 25 new neighborhoods are targeted during the coming year to start selling homes in Manteca and Lathrop alone.

The biggest surge will likely be River Islands at Lathrop.

Typically, River Islands builders are selling homes in 12 neighborhoods in any given year in the planned community of 15,001 homes.

But in 2024 after demand in previous years exceeded expectations, the land prepped for home construction ran out.

It’s not that Cambay Group didn’t see the demand coming.

River Islands is dealing with different issues than ground developers in Manteca or Tracy.

Due to Stewart Tract that encompasses River Islands not just being flat but having  geological issues that come with being in the secondary Delta zone, sewer mains need to be buried 35 to 40 feet deep to maximize gravity flow.

That compares to 12 to 20 feet typical of most development elsewhere.

The deeper trenching — and related work — takes more time.

River Islands ended up selling 250 new homes in 2024.

The development had been selling 500 to 600 homes annually.

It would likely have done the same last year if builders had lots they could construct homes on.

River Islands CEO Susan Dell’Osso noted Cambray is to the point they will soon have 15 new neighborhoods selling homes concurrently.

The drop off in available lots for new homes in River Islands last year may have helped heat up the new Manteca housing market.

Manteca in 2024 issued a record 1,306 permits for new single family homes. That followed 978 new home starts in 2023 and 875 home starts in 2022.

Tracy had 576 new homes started with Lathrop right behind it.

Between the three cities — using an average yield of 3.1 residents per new home — the new housing starts last year will likely generate 6,220 new South County residents when all homes are occupied.

Keep in mind it can take three to six months for a new home to be completed once work starts on extending services and pouring the foundation.

That means a good share of the new population that will be realized from housing starts in 2024 won’t materialize until this year.

And by the same token much of the population gain that will be realized in new homes sales in Manteca, Lathrop, and Tracy through Dec. 31 of this year won’t materialize until 2026. 

Manteca has ground work underway for three new subdivisions in addition to more phases of neighborhoods currently under construction in the planned 1,301-home Griffin Park along South Main Street, Villa Ticino West along North Airport Way, and in southwest Manteca.

The three new projects are:

*The 177 home Indelicato neighborhood next to Del Webb on Airport Way in north Manteca.

*The 797 home Yosemite Square neighborhood on Austin Road in east Manteca.

*The 827 home Lumina neighborhood on Airport Way and Woodward Avenue in southeast Manteca.

Between those three projects that represents 1,801 homes and a potential additional population of 5,661 residents with a likely build out over three to four years based on the current market.

The projects listed does not include 818 new housing units in the Quaterra project on the northeast corner of Atehrton Srive and South Main.

The home builder indicated they plan to start site work in the next two months.

That means the firm could be in a position to start selling homes in the waning months of this year.

If River Islands bounced back to its 500 to 600 annual sales this year, Tracy holds steady, and Manteca slows down as bit to 1,100 homes, the three cities could easily see housing permits issued this year that would — based on the 3.1 people occupancy on average —  accommodate new residents equivalent to today’s population of Escalon.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com