Manteca is a distant sixth when it comes to having industrial space needed to attract jobs  in the San Joaquín County-Stanislaus County region.

It also lags significantly in land zoned for future business park developments.

That means the city is at a disadvantage when it comes to snaring what is expected to be a demand for distribution and logistics  — frontline warehouse workers to transportation workers  — forecasted to generate between 21,000 and 48,000 more jobs in San Joaquín County over the next 22 years.

That information is gleaned from a BAE Urban Economics study commissioned by San Joaquin County regarding the health of the industrial park  market and whether the region is positioned  to accommodate anticipated demand.

The industrial market study is being presented to the Board for Supervisors when they meet today at 9 a.m. in Stockton at the county administration center.

Manteca has an anemic 4 percent of the existing industrial park space — 6,160,303 square feet — in the San Joaquin County-Stanislaus County region that that has emerged as a major distribution logistics center for the Northern California Metroplex that includes San Jose, Oakland, San Francsico, and Sacramento as well as the growing Northern San Joaquin Valley.

That’s just barely more than  Patterson, a city a quarter the size of Manteca that lacks the advantage of being sandwiched between major intermodal yards for the biggest railroads serving the West Coast with service to the Midwest — Sante Fe and Union Pacific — as Manteca is.

A breakdown of the 145,740,411 square feet of existing space by submarkets in the two counties with 75 percent of the total in San Joaquin County is as follows:

*Tracy, 34,870,496 square feet.

*Southeast Stockton 33,295,714 square feet. The area is four miles north of Manteca.

*Lathrop, 17,736,783 square feet.

*Modesto/Ceres, 24,254,777 square feet.

*Lodi, 9,907,181 square feet.

*Manteca, 6,160,302 square feet.

*Patterson, 6,012,566 square feet.

*Northeast Stockton, 5,313,687 square feet.

*Turlock, 3,147,288 square feet.

*West Stockton, 2,511,329 square feet.

*Greater Stanislaus (rural areas) 2,530,107 square feet.

And when it comes to set aside land for future business parks that attract the likes of Amazon, Wayfair, Target, and such Manteca is even farther down the list.

Based on the BAE study, Manteca has only 93.9 acres zoned for industrial parks. That’s just a little more than an acre beyond what Escalon has at 92.7 acres.

Manteca’s updated general plan that was adopted in July by the City Council but is being held in abeyance due to a referendum triggered by Delicato Vineyards set for the November 2024 ballot to potentially reject it, actually has significantly more land zoned for industrial park use

There is 5,061.2 acres of land for industrial use in the two-county region. Inventory of land zoned for potential industrial development by jurisdiction is as follows:

*Stockton, 1,500.5 acres

*Tracy, 1,283.2 acres.

*Unincorporated areas in San Joaquin County, 1,169.4 acres.

 *Lathrop, 742.6 acres.

*Lodi, 158.7 acres

*Manteca, 93.9 acres

*Escalon, 92.7 acres

*Ripon. 20.4 acres

Vancy rate is 4.4%;

rents are up 18.4%

The vacancy rate for industrial buildings in the region is 4.4 percent.

Real estate analysts and economists indicate vacancy rates of 10 percent or less reflect a strong market.

The region has had vacancy rates consistently below 5 percent over the past 10 years.

Industrial space was renting at $8.09 per square foot in the first quarter of 2022 and $9.09 per square foot in the first quarter of 2023. That reflects an 18.4 percent increase in rent.

There has been 47,636,400 square feet of industrial space built in the region between 2008 and 2023 with an annual average rate of 3,175,760 square feet.

To give you an idea of what that kind of space looks like, the Wayfair distribution center in Lathrop along the 120 Bypass east of Interstate 5 is 1.1 million square feet.

Industrial park development has accelerated in the past five years.

There has been 22,966,322 square feet built, between 2018 and 2023. That is an annual average of 5,124, 684 square feet.

Since the start of 2023, 7,699,935 square feet has started construction.

To contact Denis Wyatt, email dwatt@mantecabulletin.com