Manteca — even if the  record flurry of new home building in 2024 drops by 50 percent — is now on course to blow past the 100,000 population mark sometime in 2027.

The city issued 1,306 new single family home permits in 2024.

Based on an average yield of 3.11 people per dwelling, when all of the 1,306 homes are completed Manteca would add 4,061 residents.

Manteca’s population based on state Department of Finance estimates was 90,917 on Jan. 1, 2024.

Add the potential number of residents housing permits issued in 2024 are projected to add, and Manteca will be at 94,978 residents

There were 978 single family home permits issued in 2023 — now the third highest on record — and 875 in 2022.

That means in 2022, 2023 and 2024 some 3,159 housing permits have been issued. It reflects 9,824 people based on the city’s occupancy rate for single family homes.

To put that in perspective, in  three years’ time Manteca will have added the equivalent 58 percent of Ripon’s projected Department of Finance population of 17,146 as of Jan. 1, 2024.

And when compared to Tracy, Manteca is building new homes at twice the pace. Tracy issued 576 new home permits in 2024, the most since 2021, compared to 1,306 for Manteca.

Tracy’s population based on Department of Finance numbers, was 96,609 as of Jan. 1, 2024. That compares to 90,917 for Manteca.

Tracy, at its current pace, will breach the 100,000 mark in 2026. Based on current trends, Manteca would join Tracy the following year.

Manteca is on track, even if the pace drops off by 25 percent this year, to end up building 4,200 homes in four years compared to the decade it took the 15,001-home planned community of River Islands at Lathrop to reach that milestone once the first house foundation was poured.

The frenzied paced of Manteca growth may not be slowing down anytime zone.

In recent months, ground work has started on three new tract developments with national buildings posed to put in infrastructure for all approved lots at once.

Those projects are:

*The 177 home Indelicato neighborhood next to Del Webb on Airport Way in north Manteca.

*The 797 home Yosemite Square neighborhood on Austin Road in east Manteca.

*The 827 home Lumina neighborhood on Airport Way and Woodward Avenue in southeast Manteca.

Between those three projects that represents 1,801 homes and a potential additional population of 5,661 residents.

That work is in addition to Raymus Homes starting new units in the 1,301 home Griffin Park neighborhood along South main Street in southeast Manteca and a half dozen buildings working on the next phases of their subdivisions in southwest Manteca.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dqyatt@mantecabulletin.com