The Northern San Joaquin Valley, as things now stand, could be slipping into the grip of a dry year.
And if conditions don’t turnaround with less than five weeks to go before the critical April 1 snowpack reading, South San Joaquin Irrigation District water managers are warning drought measures could be on the horizon.
The SSJID board when they meet today at 9 a.m. is considering starting the irrigation season on March 12.
That would be welcome news to almond growers as the region is now heading into a week or so of higher than normal temperatures.
The snowpack as of Feb. 1 on the Stanislaus watershed that supplies drinking water for 220,000 urban customers in Manteca, Tracy, and Lathrop as well as 50,000 irrigated acres with the SSJID boundaries was less than 50 percent of normal.
The Department of Water Resources noted that the snowpack was 31 percent of the critical April 1 average.
The April 1 reading is crucial as that is usually the end of the snow season in the Sierra as well as the Cascades.
Snowpack in the two ranges account for nearly 40 percent of the state’s water needs..
The recent February storms have made the worst case scenario somewhat less daunting.
The storms have translated into a level of natural flow into Goodwin Dam that means SSJID and Oakdale Orrigation District are likely to be entitled to at least 500,000 acre feet with a good chance the full 600,000 acre-feet of formula water will be delivered with additional perception.
At 500,000 acre feet, SSJID’s share would be 241,026 acre feet. That reflects the district’s 50 percent share minus 8,274 acre feet they diverted in October after the start of the current water year.
Should the forecast worsen after the March 1 snow survey, the district will need to consider if additional conservation measures are needed to ensure both its urban and agricultural customers consume water within the district’s available supplies.
In the past during more severe droughts, measures included inch-limits for irrigation customers and state imposed limits for urban cist8imers.
On the flipside, any improvements to the staff’s most conservative projection would likely result in no official restrictions for SSJID’s customers.
Regardless, SSJID’s message to its customers has consistently been to use water as efficiently as possible avoiding waste and overapplications.
The Stanislaus watershed hydrology conditions are consistent with that of the overall San Joaquin River basin that is also rated as critical.
The United States Department of Agriculture drought monitor as of Feb. 20 had all of San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties as being abnormally dry with the remaining six counties of the San Joaquin Valley in moderate drought.
Northern California — basically north of San Joaquin County — and most of the Bay Area are considered to be under normal water conditions.
That said, 14.75 percent of the state is in extreme drought and 24.82 percent in severe drought. All of that area is in Southern California.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
