There were 9 more residential burglaries in Manteca during 2022 than in 2021.

That represents a 15.79 percent increase over the previous year.

But year-to-year comparisons mask a significant trend. Residential burglaries dropped below 100 on an annual basis in 2020 for the first time since at least the 1970s and have stayed there.

The 66 residential burglary cases in 2022 came after 2021 numbers dropped to 57 following 77 in 2020. The year marked the first time since 1980 the number of residential burglaries dipped below 100.

The peak year for residential burglaries was 2008 with 323.

Overall felony crime in Manteca inched back up 6.88 percent in 2022 based on stats compiled by the Manteca Police Department.
Part One Crimes, or the 12 more serious crimes classified as felonies that the FBI uses to determine the relative safety of communities, increased in seven categories with homicide leading the way. Homicide cases tripled going from one in 2021 to three last year.

 Arson was up 172.3 percent going from 11 to 30. Other jumps saw auto burglary up 22.45 percent going from 196 to 240, vehicle theft up 19.91 percent going from 221 to 265, robbery up 12.5 percent going from 56 to 63, and grand theft up 11.45 percent going from 358 to 399.

You are most likely to be the victim of an auto burglary in Manteca than any other burglary.

While vehicle thefts were up, It is a far cry from 2005 when thieves were stealing a vehicle in Manteca every 10.9 hours for a record 798 vehicles in one year. That nose bleed number of vehicle thefts included one big rig left idling in front of a Manteca home and a Manteca Police patrol unit.

Commercial burglary dropped 17.36 percent going from 121 in 2021 to 100 in 2022. Unlawful intercourse, other burglaries, aggravated assault, and all other felonies were also down.

 Overall felonies rose from 1,598 in 2021 to 1708 in 2021 to reflect the 6.88 percent increase. The 2021 numbers had represented a 6.5 percent increase over 2020.

The reason why the crime rate per 1,000 is used by agencies ranging from the FBI to local police departments is simple — raw numbers for crime don’t provide the perspective of an increase in the number of potential victims.

The crime per 1,000 takes into account population growth to put numeric increases or decreases into perspective for an apple to apple comparison in terms of overall burglaries and felonies. It is why it is the matrix the FBI uses to determine crime rates and the relative safety of communities.

Manteca last year had a crime rate of 18.9 crimes per 1,000 based on 1,708 felonies and a population of 90,000.

Manteca in 2020 had a crime rate of 18.3 crimes per 1,000 based on 1,598 felonies and a population of 87,000.

That compares to 23.2 crimes per 1,000 in 2019 based on 1,998 felonies and 84,800 residents.

Once you factor in population, crime had been on a steady downward trend since 2015  when it was 32.1 crimes per 1,000 until 2020.

The increases in the last two years stopped that downward trend although the crime rate per 1,000 is roughly 40 percent lower than it was seven years ago.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com