Crime, contrary to postings on social media, dropped considerably in Manteca during the past 40 years.

Councilman Charlie Halford who retired as Manteca’s police chief in 2008 made that point at Tuesday’s council meeting during a discussion on whether the city had inadequate police staffing given “that crime is soaring.”

Halford said “I hate to harp on social media” before pointing out that virtually instantaneous reporting of crime — and even alleged crimes that did not happen— on social media sites as well as in traditional media on the internet and via TV has created a perception there is more crime than there really is.

Halford said “If someone burps on a school bus” you’ll find out about it in social media.

Halford pointed to statistics to prove his point.

He noted the only statistic that provides a correct measuring stick of crime over the years is the crime per 100,000 residents index established by the FBI. Law enforcement in cities are required to use specific reporting parameters to compile the crime data.

Crime per 100,000 is determined by taking a specific category such as residential burglary in a specific year and dividing it by the population that year. It is then converted to crime per 100,000 to provide a comparison with other communities

Manteca in 2021 had a crime rate of 18.3 crimes per 1,000 based on 1,598 felonies and a population of 87,000.

That compares to 23.2 crimes per 1,000 in 2020 based on 1,998 felonies and 84,800 residents.

Once you factor in population, crime had been on a steady downward trend since 2015 when it was 32.1 crimes per 1,000 residents. The increase so far this year stopped that trend although the crime rate per 1,000 is roughly 40 percent lower than it was six years ago.

Even without the drop in the crime per 1,000 residents, the numerical number of many crime categories have dropped even with population gains not being taken into account.

The 57 residential burglary cases in 2021 came after 2020 numbers dropped to 77. That marked the first time since 1998 the number of residential burglaries dipped below 100.

The peak year for residential burglaries was 2008 with 323.

Vehicle thefts dropped 10.89 percent going from 248 in 2020 to 221 in 2021. It is a far cry from 2005 when thieves were stealing a vehicle in Manteca every 10.9 hours for a record 798 vehicles in one year. That nose bleed number of vehicle thefts included one big rig left idling in front of a Manteca home and a Manteca Police patrol unit.
Halford noted back in the 1980s as a police officer on patrol there were streets in Manteca that he did  not feel safe walking down at night.

Today, as a civilian he said there is  not a street in Manteca that he would feel unsafe walking down at night.

Mayor Ben Cantu, at one point in the conversation, said most people that talk to him about police issues are more concerned about getting injured or suffering property damage and other financial losses from medical bills on Manteca streets via traffic accidents.

Unlike felonies and such, injury accidents have been inching up over the years often exceeding population gains. Meanwhile, tickets issued for moving violations that contribute to accidents have been dropping.

Halford added that perceptions based on social media and such are what are causing people to live in fear.

“There was three times as much crime” in Manteca during the 1980s, according to Halford.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com