A decision by the Manteca Planning Commission Thursday could essentially paint a target on northeast rural Manteca when it comes to housing growth.

And it’s all because of a settlement with the city that Delicato Family Wines was able to leverage by convincing voters to sign a referendum they clearly implied would address concerns Manteca was growing too much.

An end result could well be accelerating the timeline for tract housing to start popping up in the area northeast of the city limits.

That’s because the general plan amendment being considered clears up any ambiguity as to what the city’s future intent is when it comes to a Roth Road interchange on Highway 99.

Definitive language states the general plan is being amended to “reduce congestion and traffic impacts through the planned future construction of the Roth Road interchange.”

Some existing council members have been dodging whether it is the city’s intent to ever do more than just an overpass of Highway 99 — much like Cottage and Louise avenues.

The general plan amendment, if adopted by the commission and the City Council, makes building a full-scale interchange an official municipal goal.

It is being tied into the settlement agreement with Delicato that also reduces residential development near the winery by converting some 255 acres into industrial zoning and parkland.

The added industrial along with existing industrial and other industrial zoning for all practical purposes assures Roth Road through Manteca will be a truck route.

By spelling out the Roth Road interchange will be built, it sends a clear message to the development community that rural northeast Manteca is being teed up for growth.

The area has good-sized parcels of land conducive to tract home development.

There is also a large number of small rural estates — half acre to two acres — lining several roads in the area that buffer much of that land from existing roads such a Northland, Castle, and Austin.

Because the only roads accessing the area are lined with somewhere between 150 and 250 homes, the development community has avoided the area.

To open new areas to development, they would need to piece together a number of the parcels being farmed into a large parcel to make sewer and water line extensions pencil out.

But they also need traffic access.

A Roth Road interchange clearing the way for a major arterial to be built east of Highway 99 and north of Northland Road changes the dynamics.

Much of the area in question has been on the city’s radar for future growth.

As such, it has been identified as urban reserve for residential and industrial a part of the city’s sphere of influence.

The sphere of influence identifies land that is  considered as being logical for future annexation to accommodate city growth.

It has always been in the distant future some 30 to 40 years out, if that soon. That said, it is why the Roth Road interchange was not included in the adopted general plan that serves as the city’s blueprint for growth through 2043.

The Delicato settlement changed that.

And as such, the settlement process that was the result of the winery basically pushing a referendum by telling voters Manteca was growing too much could end up accelerating the growth timeline in rural northeast Manteca.

There is a parallel example of the city committing to build an interchange accelerating growth.

And that example is the McKinley Avenue and 120 Bypass.

Concerned south rural Manteca residents packed several public meetings in 2004 and 2005 questioning the city wanting to build that interchange along with what is known today as Raymus Parkway.

There were told repeatedly by city staff at the time, along with consultants, the need to build the interchange and parkway was a moot issue for them given it wouldn’t be needed until 2035 or so.

The McKinley interchange will open late this year.

And because the city was working toward the McKinley Avenue, they allowed development of land needed to pay for it to occur.

It is why today southwest Manteca is the city’s hot spot for growth.

A previous council pulled official adoption of a Roth Road interchange.

There reason was two-fold.

The city had yet — and still really hasn’t so far — identified funding for needed interchange work at both Main Street and Airport Way on the 120 Bypass that could easily exceed a combined $25 million.

At the same time they also no funding mechanism in place for an envisioned Raymus Parkway interchange between Austin Road and Jack Tone Road on the Highway 99 corridor.

The decision to drop plans for a Roth Road interchange was done at the same time the city dropped plans for the Raymus Parkway interchange.

That’s because a three-phased redesign of the Highway 99/120 Bypass interchange by Caltrans includes a robust replacement of the Austin Road interchange.

That eliminated the need for the city to come up with $80 million to $100 million for the Raymus Parkway interchange.

The high price tag was on the Raymus Parkway interchange was due to the need to shift the Highway 99 freeway to the east to allow the overpass to clear both the freeway and bridge while having standard ramps put in place.

A Roth Road interchange — based on the McKinley Avenue price tag — could easily cost $30 million.

There is not adequate developable land north of Lathrop Road between Airport Way and Highway 99 to leverage enough in growth fees to pay for the Roth Road interchange.

Any funding formula would require an area of benefit that includes the northeast area.

The planning commission meets at 6 p.m. Thursday at the Civic Center, 1001 W. Center St.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com