Manteca is planning for 211,003 residents.

That’s the bottom-line of the update of the state-mandated general plan document that serves as a blueprint for growth that’s before the Manteca Planning Commission when they meet Thursday at 6 p.m. at the Civic Center, 1001 W. Center St.

Designed to guide Manteca growth through 2043, the plan is an update of the current document adopted in October 2003. General plans must be updated every 20 years under state law.

The 211,003 population is based on allowed land  use attached to property that is within the city limits plus that identified for future annexation within the city’s sphere of influence.

The general boundaries of the sphere of influence are unchanged.

Land use, though, has been tilted toward allowing more business park uses for job generation and slightly less residential compared to the 2002 plan that is now in place.

It doesn’t mean that Manteca will ever reach 211,033 residents given the market conditions and growth pressures have to facilitate the city’s growth reaching that point. But based on the growth of the last two decades, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Manteca, when the current plan was adopted, had 59,330 residents.

Assuming the council approves the update later this year, Manteca is on pace to have 90,000 residents by the time it goes into effect.

If Manteca just matches the numeric growth of the last 20 years, the city will have 120,670 residents when 2045 rolls around. That’s an addition of 30,670 people.

In the 20-year period between 1983 and 2003, Manteca added 22,000 residents going from 27,000 to 59,330.

The Manteca general plan encompasses two types of land — what is already in the city limits and what is highly likely to become part of the city.

Those two areas represent 31.89 square miles. To give you an idea of the area covered in  a square mile, which is 640 acres, it is the same amount of land that is bordered by Louise Avenue on the north, Cottage Avenue on the east, Yosemite Avenue on the south, and Main Street on the west.

There are already 13,746 acres within the city limits. There is another 6,664 acres adjacent to the city that is known as the sphere of influence and ultimately is expected to be annexed to the city.

The land uses the general plan update gives to both categories of land will eventually allow Manteca to accommodate 66,353 housing units or 211,003 residents overall.

To put a city of 211,003 residents in perspective:

*Manteca currently is on the cusp of 90,000 residents.

*If there was no other population growth in other California cities, 211,003 residents would make Manteca the state’s 20th largest city with just 921 less residents than Moreno Valley in Riverside County.

*Stockton, currently the state’s 11th largest city, has 321,819 residents.

*Modesto, currently the state’s 19th largest city, has 218,069 residents.

What Manteca’s future

city limits could look like

If all of the land addressed in the general plan is annexed to the city, it would create a fixed boundary on the west and partial boundaries to the north and south that the city could not expand beyond.

Manteca is already flush against Lathrop on the west. It could also eventually include Oakwood Shores as well as some areas to the west that border the San Joaquin River.

It’s southern boundary in a large part will be determined by the placement of a cross-levee or dry levee required for 200-year flood protection. State law will not allow urbanization south of the proposed levee as it would lack 200-year flood protection.

That wouldn’t be the case on the eastern edge of Manteca’s southern flank. Manteca could theoretically grow until it reaches the sphere of influence for Ripon.

On the north, Manteca would touch part of Stockton’s existing city limits that reaches French Camp.

However, Manteca could still grow north of French Camp Road east of Highway 99.

On the east, it is wide open north east of Highway 99 and north  of Graves Road which is the northern sphere of influence boundary for Ripon.

The general plan as presented includes land within 1½ miles of Jack Tone Road between Louise Avenue and East Highway 120.

North and south of that area the eastern edge of Manteca’s planning area is Prescott Road to the north and to the south if that rural road was continued south to Highway 99.

The first workshop for the update took place in March of 2017.
There have been 31 public workshops hearings related to the general plan update and potential adoption  prior to Thursday’s planning commission meeting.

The commission Thursday is charged with deciding whether to recommend the City Council certify the Manteca General Plan Update Environmental Impact Report.

To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com