California’s population growth is stagnating.
However, the Northern San Joaquin Valley will continue to grow.
That is the bottom line of a state Department of Finance projection of growth trends in California through 2060 using 2020 as the base year. The projection was made this week.
The three-county Northern San Joaquin Valley region — San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced counties — is expected to grow by 310,066 residents by 2060.
California, as a whole, is projected to have 11,079 less residents in 2060 than it did in 2020.
The state’s 2060 population is pegged at 39,508,921.
Using the Department of Finances’ methodology, California’s population will peak at 40,153,476 in 2043.
The Northern Joaquin Valley is one of three regions in California anticipated to see solid growth.
The others are the Sacramento Area consisting of Sacramento, Placer, and Yolo counties plus the Inland Empire comprised of Riverside and San Bernadino counties.
The three regions are projected to grow a combined 969,000 residents by 2060.
The Sacramento Area will lead the way with a gain of 375,214, followed by the Northern San Joaquin Valley at 310,066, and then the Inland Empire at 284,000.
Within the Northern San Joaquin Valley:
*San Joaquin County is expected to grow by 196,119 to reach 976,326 in 2060.
*Merced County is expected to grow by 57,338 to reach 338,247 by 2060.
*Stanislaus County is expected to grow by 55,809 to reach 609,615 in 2060.
To put the regional growth in perspective:
*The three county region anticipated gain of 310,066 essentially adds another city the current size of Stockton at 322,210.
*San Joaquin County’s growth of 196,119 would essentially replicate the current cities of Tracy, Manteca and Ripon that are now at a combined 198,000.
Based on housing start data from 2022— which was not factored into the state’s projection — San Joaquin County is likely exceeding the population projections for 2025 by the time this year ends.
There were 1,847 housing starts in 2022 between Lathrop (972) and Manteca (875) plus 300 apartments units started
Based on current occupancy yields that translates into 4,500 more residents just between the two cities. The state projects a 2,026 gain for all of San Joaquin County in 2023.
That’s 2,474 less residents that just Manteca and Lathrop will add without factoring in what growth happened in Tracy and Mountain House last year.
Manteca, Lathrop, and Tracy have consistently been among the state’s fastest growing cities.
Mountain House, that is working toward becoming San Joaquin County’s eighth incorporated city, just over 20 years ago was farmland, Today it has 30,000 residents.
By 2035, the state projects San Joaquin County’s population to be at 866,548— halfway into the 20-year horizon that the just adopted Manteca general plan that serves as a blueprint for growth covers.
That is an 86,000 gain in population.
Based on the past two years, 90 percent of that growth will be in the South County proportionately – if the trends of the last two years continue — that would translate into 78,400 more residents in Tracy, Lathrop, Manteca and Mountain House.
And if Manteca gains the same numerical percentage of the South County growth pie as the last two years, that will translate into 26,000 more residents to bump the city’s population to 116,000 people by 2035.
Given there are roughly 10,000 housing units in the entitlement pipeline, Manteca is in a position to absorb that amount of growth and more should the market allow it.
Land use identified in the general plan would accommodate an estimated 211,000 residents at buildout of all land set aside for housing.
The big loser in the state’s projections is Los Angeles County that is expected to lose 1.7 million residents by 2060. That would leave LA County with 8.2 million residents.
To contact Dennis Wyatt, email dwyatt@mantecabulletin.com
